Optimistic Oracle - Will an earthquake measuring 8.0 or above occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022?
2022-07-31
q: title: Will an earthquake measuring 8.0 or above occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022?, description: This is a market on whether at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occurs on Earth between January 1, 2022 (12:00:00 AM ET) and June 1, 2022 (12:00:00 AM ET), as measured by the U.S. Geological Survey. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the resolution source lists 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher anywhere on earth for that period. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). To access the data, one must choose the earthquake they are looking for from the list then open its individual page, then open its “Origin” detailed data. The URLs of such pages are usually formatted as follows: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/%5B_CATALOGNUMBER_%5D/origin/detail Specifically, the number next to the magnitude (regardless of the uncertainty level and of the scale used) and the origin time at the “Origin” page of each earthquake in question will be used. Please note, only earthquakes with “REVIEWED” origin status will be considered. The last data check will be done on June 7th, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET. res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p2 corresponds to Yes, p1 to a No, p3 to unknown. The Oracle resolved to -57896044618658097711785492504343953926634992332820282019728.792003956564819968 = p4 = too early! The disputer was correct!
Optimistic Oracle - Will Federico Gutiérrez win the 2022 Colombian presidential election?
2022-07-31
q: title: Will Federico Gutiérrez win the 2022 Colombian presidential election?, description: Colombian presidents are elected for four-year terms using a two-round system; if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff is held between the top two candidates. The first round of elections for the President of Colombia is scheduled to take place on May 29, 2022. Incumbent President Iván Duque is ineligible for a second term. If Federico Gutiérrez wins the 2022 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no presidential candidate is elected by January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, however if there is ambiguity in the election's results official information from the government of Colombia (e.g. http://wsp.presidencia.gov.co/En/Paginas/Presidency.aspx) will be used. res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p2 corresponds to Yes, p1 to a No, p3 to unknown. The Oracle resolved to -57896044618658097711785492504343953926634992332820282019728.792003956564819968 = p4 = too early! The disputer was correct!
Across Relay Dispute #1654874176
Across Relay Dispute #1654874916
Dispute on Across-v2 price identifier, timestamp #1654537326. The Oracle resolved to 0 = p1 = No! The disputer was correct!